Economic uncertainty, stubborn inflation and other issues persist – but there are reasons to be positive, says NW Regional Chair Holly Bonfield

 

UK small business champion the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) has published its latest North West Small Business Index, with figures for Q4 of 2023 showing that overall confidence in the region has fallen to -9 from +3 in the previous quarter.

 

The greatest perceived barriers to growth over the next 12 months in the North West are conditions in the domestic economy (60%), consumer demand (26%), utility costs (26%), labour costs (25%) and appropriately skilled staff (25%).

 

Significantly, utility costs are rising in prominence after previously falling from 43% in Q1 2023 to 33% in Q2, and then 18% in Q3.

 

However, with the national confidence figure even lower (at -15 in Q4) and the data showing the North West is the best-performing region on revenue and investment intentions, and also growth in employment and wages, there are reasons to be positive about the region’s economic outlook.

 

North West Regional Chair Holly Bonfield said: “Clearly, it is concerning that we have seen small business confidence fall back into negative territory after the positive figure recorded in the previous quarter.

 

“The spectre of utility costs has not gone away and is worryingly rising as a problem. In addition, economic uncertainty, labour cost issues and skills shortages are combining to undermine optimism across the region.

 

“However, it is important to take a step back and view the whole picture. When we do, we can see that there are reasons to be positive – on several key indicators the North West is performing strongly compared to other regions and the UK as a whole.

 

“Consumer demand is one of the main issues reported and growth aspirations are down, but the North West is actually the leading region on revenue performance and small business investment intentions. Staff numbers are increasing, as are wages, both outperforming the national figure.

 

“We will continue to press the Government for national policies that drive entrepreneurial success and growth, and work with local authorities across the North West to ensure small businesses can access the best support infrastructure possible. The latter is particularly important given that local funding is diminishing – so we need to do better with less.”

 

Growth and investment aspirations

 

Overall net growth aspirations have declined from 43% in Q3, to 32% in Q4. This quarter, 52% said that their growth aspirations in the next 12 months were to grow either rapidly (increase turnover/sales by over 20%) or moderately (up to 20%). This has worsened slightly when compared to the previous quarter, when it stood at 58%.

 

However, the investment intentions of North West small businesses have increased considerably compared to the previous quarter, now standing at net 21% compared to the net 0% recorded in Q3. The improved investment expectations in the region also outperforms the nationwide average in Q4 (which is net 8%).

 

In all, 37% of small businesses in the North West expect to increase investment levels in the coming quarter – greater than the 26% of those who indicate this nationwide. Looking at those who anticipate decreasing their investment, the North West is on par with the wider UK (16% in the region, vs. 17% nationwide).

 

All regions apart from East Midlands (net -8%) perform positively on investment intentions, with the North West performing the best of all. There is a 7% gap between North West (21%), and the next highest region, East of England (14%).

 

Business Conditions

 

Further, revenue sentiment in the North West has rebounded from the recent negative trend, which stretched back to Q1 2022, with a net figure of 9% reporting an increase in Q4 2024, compared to -9% in Q3. The North West is currently the most positive scoring region, with London just below (7%).

 

In all, 42% of small businesses in the North West reported revenue increasing during the period – an improvement on the previous quarter – and fewer (33%) reported a decrease compared to the Q3 (48%).

 

The future revenue outlook remains positive. A net balance of 7% expect growth in profits for the coming quarter. This is more or less on par with Q3, where the net balance stood at 8%. Revenue outlook in the coming quarter for the North West remains more positive than the net national average (which is 0%).

 

Employment and Wage growth

 

North West small businesses have increased headcount, with a net rise in staff levels for Q4 2023 (1%).

 

The employment picture over the preceding three months showed that 17% had decreased and 18% had increased staff numbers. The net employment level of 1% for Q4 reflects a more positive score compared to that reported in Q3 (net -4%).

 

Most small businesses in the region had no change in staffing levels in Q4, with just over half (57%) reporting headcount had stayed the same. The net change in headcount of 1% in the North West is higher than the respective net score nationwide, which stands with a negative outlook at -4%.

 

However, looking ahead, North West small businesses expect net -4% change in headcount for the next quarter.

 

A total of 67% of small businesses in the region increased the average salary awarded over the past 12 months – notably higher than the respective nationwide level (60%). The net change in salary for the North West in Q4 2023 has increased to 61% from Q3 (55%).

 

The current predicted wage growth is on par with figures recorded in the previous quarter, where 72% anticipated wage increases. In Q4 2023, 73% expect to see salary increases over the next year.

 

Manchester Airport has marked 12 months since the start of the final phase of its £1.3bn transformation programme by looking at the important milestones reached in the last year.

Work started on the second phase of the programme in January 2023 and since then the airport has seen significant progress, including the creation of 500 new construction jobs, the demolition of Terminal 2’s old security and retail hall to make way for a brand new one and major developments on the airfield.

The first phase of the project started with the opening of the west side of the brand-new Terminal 2 – which has already won a prestigious design award, the Prix Versailles, which recognised it as one of the most beautiful airport buildings in the world.

Passenger feedback on the new Terminal has already been extremely positive – a survey of more than 1,000 passengers last summer that showed 93% of passengers rated their overall satisfaction as ‘good,’ ‘very good’  or ‘excellent’.

The second phase focuses on the east side of Terminal 2 which is being brought in line with the award-winning west side and will feature 27 new shops, bars and restaurants – which will be announced in the spring.

Over the course of the next 18 months the second phase will see the completion of Terminal 2’s second pier that will increase the number of boarding gates and provide capacity for next generation aircraft and the giant Airbus A380. It will also see the completion of a new check in hall and brand-new security scanners, an extension of the departure lounge and the installation of a landmark piece of art made using the iconic old chandeliers that used to be in Terminal 1.

Once complete, Terminal 2 will become the airport’s main terminal and cater for over 70% of its passengers. It will also allow for the closure of Terminal 1.

Key milestones in the last year include:

January 2023: Phase 2 launched

February 2023: Demolition of the old retail and security hall

March 2023: Creation of 500 new construction jobs on the project – plus opportunities for T Level students and work experience students

April 2023: Work completed in Terminal 2 West check in hall – including the delivery of 40 new check in desks that are already improving customer service. The baggage hall was also extended and the new system for moving

May 2023: Tenders launched for 27 new shops, restaurants and bars to go in the new part of the Terminal 2 departure lounge – the final lineup will be announced in the spring

June 2023: Construction started on Pier 2 – this is the largest infrastructure element of the second phase and will almost double the terminal’s capacity for aircraft – including making it able to accommodate two Airbus A380s, the largest passenger jets in the world

July 2023: Piling started – piling is the process of drilling reinforced foundations into the ground to allow for the construction of large, heavy buildings. The project is using innovative pre-cast piles that significantly reduce vehicle movements involved in the construction and drives down its carbon footprint

August 2023: Significant work on the airfield carried out – including the installation of a sub-terranean aviation fuel pipe and the beginning of work to create a new dual taxiway which will make the airfield more efficient

September 2023: Welcomed new apprentices on to the project

October 2023: Work began on the east check in hall – work that will bring it in line with the award winning west side of the hall

November: In November the team carried out important community fundraising work

December: Preparations underway for an epic 18 months of further work on the programme to see it complete in 2025

Jill Fraser, Manchester Airport Transformation Programme delivery director, said: 

“The last 12 months have seen an incredible amount of work and it’s amazing to see the project really taking shape.

“From the creation of more than 500 jobs, to the work to improve the way the airfield works – this is a huge project but one that will have so many benefits for our passengers.

“We’ve already started to see some of the benefits of the programme, with our passengers who have used Terminal 2 giving amazing feedback and the award of the prestigious Prix Versailles.

“And the exciting thing is that we’ve not even finished yet – so we’re looking forward to an epic 18 months ahead. We’re proud to connect the North to the world and are looking forward to passengers seeing everything we deliver.”

James Rogers, Director at Terminal 2 architects Pascall+Watson, said: 

“Pascall+Watson Architects are proud to be part of Manchester Airport’s project team. This second phase of Manchester Airport’s Award Winning Transformation Programme will continue to build on the success of Phase 1, providing world-class facilities. Our collective efforts serve to connect the people of Manchester and the North with the rest of the world, helping to promote economic growth and tourism for the wider region.”

Carl Dainter, Head of Global Aviation for Mace Consult, said: 

“The team has collaborated at every step of the way to overcome challenges, meet important milestones, and lay the foundations for a busy 18 months ahead, and we are looking forward to handing the completed facilities over in 2025, enabling Manchester Airport to continue to grow its enhanced capacity and offering to the Northwest of England.”

 

 

ASLEF Strike Action

ASLEF, the train drivers’ union, has announced strikes affecting Avanti West Coast on Saturday 3 February – part of a range of industrial action at multiple train companies between 30 January and 5 February. We are advising that customers do not attempt to travel on Avanti West Coast on Saturday 3 February as we will not be running any services on any of our routes. We’re disappointed with this industrial action, and we are sorry for the inconvenience it will cause to our customers.

Avanti West Coast services on the days either side of the strike will also be affected, along with industrial action impacting other train companies throughout the week, so we are asking customers to check their entire journey before they travel.  Please go to: https://www.avantiwestcoast.co.uk/travel-information/live-train-status 

Customers who booked tickets to travel on strike days before the industrial action was announced, on or before 16 January, can claim a full, fee-free refund from their point of purchase. Alternatively, customers with pre-booked tickets for strike days can use these on alternative travel dates as follows:

• Tickets dated between Tuesday 30 January and Monday 5 February can be used any time from Monday 29 January up until Wednesday 7 February.

Customers don’t need to make any changes to their ticket in order to travel flexibly – Avanti’s onboard and station teams will be ready to accept tickets as outlined above. However, these easements do not include London Underground services.

To minimise the number of people disrupted, we’ve suspended ticket sales for Saturday 3 February. Customers should continue to check our website, and those of other operators, for updates. Online journey planners now accurately show no Avanti West Coast trains on Saturday 3 February. Customers should continue to check the Avanti West Coast website, and those of other operators, for updates.

ASLEF has also announced that their members will withdraw from working any overtime between 29 January and 6 February. Though the plan is to run the normal timetable during this period (with changes instead relating to the full strike action on 3 February and the resulting impact on 2 and 4 February), customers are recommended to check before they travel, as the overtime ban’s impact will vary from route to route, and the entire journey across multiple train operators may be affected.

Read all the latest news from our members from across North Cheshire in the latest edition of our magazine, Chamberlink.

There is news of a Royal Award,  new members, a VIP visit to AstraZeneca and details of our new Business Support Initiative in collaboration with South Cheshire and East Cheshire Chambers as well as details of all the winners from the recent North Cheshire Business Awards.

Read it all here

 

IPG Health Medical Communications has been awarded the coveted Princess Royal Training Awards for their early-career training programme.  

Terry Hayward joined the IPG Health Medical Communications team at their Macclesfield office to celebrate in style with a traditional afternoon tea, in honour of HRH The Princess Royal. 

Delivered by the City and Guilds Foundation, The Princess Royal Training Awards recognise organisations that demonstrate exceptional commitment to learning and development. IPG Health Medical Communications received the award for their industry-leading early career training programme, Fuel (Future Experts and Leaders).

Building on the network’s distinguishing proactive career management (PCM) approach, IPG Health Medical Communications introduced Fuel in 2021 to equip trainees with the skills, experiences, networks, and inspiration needed to successfully launch their careers. Over 200 people have taken part in the programme so far, in the UK, North America and South Africa, with 100% of associates reporting that the programme met their expectations.

HRH The Princess Royal, President of the City and Guilds of London Institute, presented the award to IPG Health Medical Communications at a ceremony at St. James’ Palace, noting the sustainable provision of skills training provided through the programme and the positive impact on the organisation and its’ people.  The Princess Royal Training Award adds to the team’s portfolio of awards this year, having also received two Stevie Awards for ‘Most Innovative Learning and Development Program (Fuel)’ and ‘Learning/Training Team of the Year’.

Caroline Smith, Executive Director, Talent said: “Here at IPG Health Medical Communications, we are driven by a healthy obsession with doing what’s right for our clients, their brands, and our people. We take our responsibility seriously when it comes to ensuring our people have endless opportunities to grow, develop new skills, and be challenged in a variety of ways. Fuel is our latest initiative to this end, and to have it recognised as one of the top training programmes in the industry and across the UK is a great source of pride for all of us.”